The Roller Coaster Oil Market
There is a public mythology concerning the oil markets that has been fueled by a sharp rise in oil prices in the last few years. That perception is that the oil companies whose job it is to acquire the raw materials to make petroleum products, including gasoline for transportation, are the source of the rising prices. It is easy for the public to pin the blame on big business.
The truth is that those on the inside of the oil business know full well that the oil business is tremendously cyclical. That means that the old adage, “whatever goes up must come down” definitely applies to the oil markets domestically and around the world. The current high prices are more a reflection of problems with refineries and with supply due to tension in the Middle East than it does with the profit objectives of the oil companies involved. In truth, oil companies have to cope with sweeping shifts in supply and demand and it impacts how they plan their economic futures as much or more than it affects the average consumer.
This upswing in the price of gas is not the first time the oil business has seen huge profits and gains in their returns. And anyone who has been in the oil business for a few decades knows full well that the current high profitability economy which is benefiting oil companies tremendously will turn the other direction at some point. Just as there is a shortage due to problems with repairs or temporary shut downs at the nation’s refineries, there will come a time when all refineries are producing at full capacity and there will be a glut on the market which will drive prices down.
Similarly just as oil shortages dominate the market and are on the minds of consumers because of Middle East tension, oil supplies can shift dramatically. A new discovery in Asia, The Soviet Union, Europe, South America or off shore in America can suddenly send a glut of supply into the market that will send the price of crude oil plummeting and with it, gas prices worldwide.
This is not just pie in the sky forecasting but an industry trend in the oil business that is supported by years of experience, research and tracking by the businesses most impacted by sudden supply and demand turns in the markets, those big oil companies. The oil business is so used to the roller coaster nature of the market that even though the market is good now for the oil companies, they are already preparing for the next downturn and how they will survive when supply exceeds demand and prices drop leaving them with big adjustments to make in how they do business.
As with any smart manager of a business or investor for that matter, diversification is the way to prepare a strategy for handling volatile markets like we see in the oil business. And that has been a cornerstone of the strategies that have kept the oil companies able to ride the ups and downs their industry undergoes on these huge swings in supply, demand and profitability. While the oil industry is enjoying unprecedented prosperity now, there is coming a time when they will see their profits drop and they will have to brace for a downturn of unknown length and survive it until the next swing of the pendulum back out.
Even now, you can bet that every big oil company in the world is already investing heavily in diversified business interests that can generate revenue to keep the company afloat when oil revenues are not as lucrative as they are now. Those investments will be in real estate, the stock market and even in far flung unrelated industries such as retail or the entertainment industry. The more diversified a company can get, the more prepared they are to ride out the roller coaster oil market.
And this shrewd business practice is a good signal to those who are investors in the oil industry as well. Just as the companies who are fattening up our portfolios now are strong investments, we should know that the downturn is coming and diversify while times are good. Then we can ride out the next oil slump just as handily as the companies that live or die by the oil markets do year in and year out.
The Job Market for a Business Analyst
Business analyst is not a new term in the business world. It has become extremely popular over the past few years. With businesses expanding world wide more emphasis has been put on the IT teams and departments to monitor and or expand with corporate peers. This has brought about changes in how business operates. A need for business analysis and systems analysts was born. Stakeholders wanted to know the money being spent was worth the expenditure. They needed someone to come in and tell them where to invest within the company to raise profits. The business analyst job was created.
The job of the business analyst was simple at first. He or she was nothing more than a monitor. Observe what was going on and try to improve on it. Look for problems and find a way to fix them. The position became complex when stakeholders started demanding things from IT and no-one knew what to do. The business analyst became the go between. Acting as the liaison for stakeholders and IT, the business analyst became the one who got things done. He or she acted as the motivator. He or she was the mover and shaker of the company.
Today a business analyst can have several different names. Systems analyst and project manager are just an example. The job of business analyst can be held from inside the company or with an outside research and consulting firm. Certain business analysts are independent business owners choosing to offer their experience to a broad range of clientèle. It is basically how the business analyst wishes to work which determines the job market for him or her.
There are those people who wish to ensure job stability within a corporation. They will feel more secure knowing they are a part of a dynamic organization they can grow with. The skill level will grow with the demands of the job. Emphasis will be placed on what the boss wants at any given time.
Other people breaking into the job market may wish to join with a group of individuals already working with several clients to fulfill the needs of stakeholders. A research and development firm may be just what is needed for this individual. He or she will want to learn with their peers, work with a trained team, and accomplish things as a team player. They will be able to grow and expand by learning from the years of experience the firm has to offer.
The business analyst who thinks outside the box may be truly happy on his or her own. He or she may want to develop their own kind of strategy for the job market. This kind of person may choose to open his or her own consulting firm. He or she may be very good at working alone while still motivating the teams and departments to get the job done. His or her success depends on the negotiating skills and other people skills one is born with. Some independent business analysts are very successful.
The job market is open to many who seek this type of position research should be done prior to just accepting any offer that comes. Questions should be asked. Is this the type of company I will be happy with? Is there room for advancement? Will I gain experience while working here? Will I be able to express myself freely when I foresee a problem with a project? What are they looking for in a business analyst? Do I truly fit the description?
Determining what the business analyst is looking for before he or she even starts career chasing will save quite a few headaches down the road.